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Challenging assumptions about global warming

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Posted: Tuesday, February 26, 2013 12:00 am

Now let's see if I have this straight: If it's colder, it's global warming. If it's hotter, it's global warming. If there's more snow, it's the same answer. If there's less snow? Well, you guessed it.

At least, that's what "leading federal university and climate scientists" will conclude based on a recent Associated Press story.

The thrust behind the warming agenda is the assumption that scientists agree man is the cause of climate change. The solution lies in curtailing his carbon emissions in order to save the planet.

However, is this really what most professionals in the field believe?

Not according to a peer-reviewed, extensive study by University of Alberta Professor Lianne M. Lefsrud, and Vienna University Professor Renate E. Meyer.

The survey found that almost all (99.4 percent) respondents concluded that the climate is changing. However, there is "considerable disagreement as to the cause, consequences and lines of action."

According to their study, only 36 percent of geoscientists (earth scientists) and related-field engineers believe that humans are creating global warming. They are categorized into what the two professors call the "Comply with Kyoto" model (the 1997 attempt by world governments to limit man's effect on climate change). These same survey respondents support the principles of the Kyoto treaty. They also express agreement with the concept that humans are the primary cause of any warming trend.

But a majority of the 1,077 sampled in the study concluded nature is the primary cause of any recent trends, not necessarily humans. They also agreed that any warming in the future would not be a significant threat.

The survey found that at least 56 percent of these scientists fell into four other categories: "Nature is Overwhelming," "Economic Responsibility," "Fatalists" and the "Regulation Activist" models.

Twenty-four percent of those who participated fit into the "Nature is Overwhelming" model. They see climate change as a normal function of the Earth's weather cycles, and see no important impact on personal lives.

Ten percent fit into the "Economic Responsibility" model. This group takes an "agnostic" view of the issue. It is unknown as to whether man or nature is the cause — perhaps both. They too believe that whatever changes taking place are insignificant. Concerns dominate their views as to costs and regulations affecting world economies. They tend to see supporting "science" at this point in time as a "fraud" or "hoax."

The "Fatalists" compose about 17 percent of the surveyed scientists. They also view little impact of any climate change on normal human activity. They tend to agree that the science is not "settled" (as Al Gore opines), and that much of the research reported today has a biased slant created by those who have a personal or emotional interest in the results.

The final category composed of 5 percent of the respondents is called the "Regulation Activists" model. They believe climate change is both human and natural, but will result in a small risk to human activity. They are conflicted as to the International Panel of Climate Change conclusions, and also agree that the science is far from "settled." Paradoxically, they believe in more government regulation, yet assert that the Kyoto protocols were negotiated "without sufficient scientific information."

The study partially concludes with: "These professionals do not ascribe to the monolithic, homogenous logic based on shared cultural-cognitive conceptions ... Nor is this merely a binary debate of whether climate change is 'science or science fiction.'"

It is clear that there are both proponents and naysayers of man-made global warming who have drawn conclusions based on misconceptions, insufficient information, personal biases and emotion. There are still yet-to-be discovered facts that may someday bring consensus to future aspects of this worldwide debate.

Steve Hansen is a Lodi writer.

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Welcome to the discussion.

13 comments:

  • Patrick W Maple posted at 3:20 pm on Tue, Mar 5, 2013.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    Robert: Just don't do in on a frozen lawn...THAT creats another kind of warming!

    I am building a 58 Fairlane Rat Rod with a Ford V10...does that count?

     
  • robert maurer posted at 5:24 pm on Mon, Mar 4, 2013.

    mason day Posts: 450

    to Patrick; that is "political science" for us. How much of taxpayers money has been wasted on this scam to conform to unproven theories to make us feel guilty? I am going to put a monster of a carburetor on my dad's 71 Ford pickup and there is nothing in the current laws that can prevent me from doing so. I've done it to engines since 1976 and I will continue do so despite the goofy laws that say I can't. I will provide what my customer requests, provided that I deem them competent in handling the changes that WILL occur. These mods that us musclecar addicts devise have no more effect on the atmosphere than if I leaked on a tree in my back yard.

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 4:32 pm on Mon, Mar 4, 2013.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    Robert...well thought out. Can I add that Mother Nature knows what's best for her tummy. AND how long have cars been around? Maybe it is STILL the ozone. We just have too many Chicken Littles amongst us...or surrounding us...or living off science grants.

     
  • robert maurer posted at 10:10 am on Mon, Mar 4, 2013.

    mason day Posts: 450

    The topic is still debated as a part of the climate change debate, but not as much as it once was. Now, the big talking point is carbon dioxide being the cause of "climate change", formerly known as global warming. Some believe that our cars are the main cause. When we have our cars smog checked,the pass or fail sheet is automatically recorded simultaneously with bureau of automotive repair and sent to DMV. If a vehicle passes,since it is autumated, a customer need not get a copy unless requested at an additional cost,which the majority do not do, thus making them ignorant regarding the fact that today's vehicles burn practically completely clean; Very few hydrocarbons,if any, very few parts per million of carbon monoxide,oxygen at about 2%, carbon dioxide at about 12% and the recent new scare; oxides of nitrogen is being focused on, which occurs in all combustion engines it temperatures of 2200 and 2500 degrees F. The remaining exhaust is nothing more than water vapor. Wonder why exhaust systems only last a few years? I do not believe for 1 millisecond that cars are the main source of air pollution or global warming and I can prove it. I have tested many cars on the continually BAR updated dynos and kept copies of the test results, and will gladly send copies to any one who doubts me; just give me a mailing address and you will have the real thing in your hand to study or simply spend a few extra dollars when you get your own vehicle smog checked and then you too can boast and prove that you are not the cause of climate change.Since Co2 is now on the ban list, does anybody remember the college prankster a few years back who started a petition to ban h2o and he had almost enough signatures because people were ignorant? Same thing applies now. How do we explain ice ages and global warming before mankind even developed? In fact,we can't.

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 8:59 pm on Sun, Mar 3, 2013.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    It's all crap. The earth cleans and cools its self. When we mistreat it she often punishes us...remember the ozone? Do you EVER hear about it now?

     
  • Mike Adams posted at 6:30 am on Thu, Feb 28, 2013.

    Mike Adams Posts: 1492

    Although it wasn't a high minded government conspiracy, last year I saw a KC 10 going into Travis (they fly over the south end of Lodi), tailboom down, fuel pouring out.
    No chemtrails there or contrails either. I know it's supposed to dissapate, but staying a while under Castle AFB's landing pattern, I can attest that those BUFFs dumping fuel didn't always completely vaporize before hitting the ground. And our cars. And our yards. And our kids.

     
  • robert maurer posted at 3:21 pm on Wed, Feb 27, 2013.

    mason day Posts: 450

    The old dusters that Mike spoke of are still in use on some smaller local area farms and in the pear orchards around Locke and Walnut Grove. When I was involved with crop dusting, the pilots of those helicopters flew as close to the crops as possible: usually about 3 feet, for the reasons you described.Those were not chem-trails,again, for the reasons you mentioned.The chem-trails that I mentioned that are yellowish-brown, are colored so that applicators and environmantal scientists can accurately gauge the application and wind drift for better accuracy, in my opinion. I can remember the early 70s when some scientists believed we were headed for another ice age because of extended lower than normal winter temperatures. There was no way that a sane motorcycle rider would have ridden year round back then, like he can today in the Lodi area. My sister was one of those government conspiracy theorists and was paranoid about what these aircraft were spraying so high in the air and since she knows more about any subject than anybody else, it took me almost 6 months of explaining this to her and drawing her attention to the flights and the amount of time before clouds formed and precipitation occured.Thanks for sharing your observations and experience. I'm with you on this topic.

     
  • Mike Adams posted at 11:07 am on Wed, Feb 27, 2013.

    Mike Adams Posts: 1492

    Even Jerry sees the effects. And thank you Jerry for more evidence. I don't think people who listen to the radio and watch tv all day realilze what effects are really beginning to show up and can't be explained away.

     
  • Mike Adams posted at 11:05 am on Wed, Feb 27, 2013.

    Mike Adams Posts: 1492

    Thanks for the info. My experience is with sulfur which used to be predominately applied by air many years ago. Unless you had a sulfur machine with a Model A body and a chevy engine, a pontiac transmission and a swamp cooler for a blower. ( I've actually driven one like this. Not something for the open road. Mechanical brakes suck. Work great unless they flip.)

    I assume most of the chemicals you applied were done at low altitude, so would be unlikely to make it into the upper atmosphere as people complain about drift if they get a whiff of something they don't recognize.

    Our weather is definitely changing here. Rather mild winters. Rainfall paterns disrupted. Steve Hansen and others like him are just in denial if they claim they don't understand that global warming involves extremes where there used to be none. How many times has the Grapevine been closed for snow in the last 2 or 3 years. How many times in the 30 years before that? Blizzards in Texas? Droughts in Texas? One follows the other? Climate is the 30 year average of weather. In general, people know what the weather will be like in 3 days. They know what it will be in 6 months too (it'll be hot). What is different is odd events happening more and more frequently and what is the cause of it.

    I think the activities of humans could have a lot to do with it. I would prefer that the midwest, the west still be the provider for the western world in 30 years, not Canada. If we can prevent this starting now, we should begin. We may have already passed the tipping point I fear. I don't think it comes from cow patties and pine trees like the deniers love to claim.

     
  • robert maurer posted at 8:15 am on Wed, Feb 27, 2013.

    mason day Posts: 450

    Mike; your post is exactly correct and thanks for the intelligent explanation. I realize that I was incomplete in my last post when I didn't mention " chem-trails" as what is seen around Spokane. If you see these,you can definitely tell the difference though. It is exactly as I described. I worked for a couple of crop dusting companies several years ago,and loaded many chemicals into aircraft such as lanate,lorsban, methyl-bromide,hydrochlorodiathalomide,sulphur,among others. some of these have been outlawed. That said, I can differentiate 100% between a "con-trail" and a "chem-trail", just as you can tell the difference between a 22 and a shotgun. Once again, I agree with your post and the conspiracy theorists.

     
  • Mike Adams posted at 6:39 am on Wed, Feb 27, 2013.

    Mike Adams Posts: 1492

    Weather scientists have been seeding clouds for decades to increase rainfall, first with silver based compounds. Early on, they realized they could over shoot their end point and cause flooding. Have other chemicals been tried? Probably.

    Can people tell the difference between normal contrail formation that occurs from high flying aircraft in cold air from efforts to spray weird chemicals into the air? I think not. Contrails by their nature tend to remain and the particles that are the contrails cause water to condense on them which is why early on cold clear mornings the sky is clear, but as airline traffic picks up, you end up with high thin (and sometimes thicker) stratus clouds in the afternoon.

    Unfortunately, the conspiracy theorists have found something else to obsess on, attributing the normal results of physics with super secret government programs with who knows what ultimate aim. They'll have pictures, videos with pictures, videos with people talking to the camera (when a reading it on a paper will suffice, the more distrustful seem to put more faith into someone speaking than what they have written), loose assembleges of snippets combined with inuendo as proof of the vast coverup. No amount of reason, logic, or evidence will change their minds, as they will point to cherry picked reports from cherry picked scientists who support their mistaken hypothesis.

    I thought at this point in man's evolution, educated people would have been smarter.

     
  • robert maurer posted at 10:06 am on Tue, Feb 26, 2013.

    mason day Posts: 450

    The climate is always changing. I don't believe we will ever find the true cause(s). That may be why everybody talks about the weather. Scientists have been conducting experiments for several years now, flying aircraft which "seeds" the sky with a type of iodine or salt product Which causes cloud formation and precipitation and snow depending on elevation. Many of these experiments take place near the air force base near Spokane,Wa. Civilians can discern these tests in the sky by the color of the trails these aircraft leave behind; a normal high flying aircraft leaves behind a "contrail," which is white and disipates rapidly, while an aircraft which is "seeding the sky",leaves behind a yellowish-brown trail which takes hours to dissipate and resembles smog in appearance. When this happens, as many as 7 to 10 aircraft fly criss-cross patterns over a an area about the size of a county. These seedings are successful almost 100% of the time, since it rains or snows within 12 to 24 hours after seeding,winter or summer. Some believe that global warming is a fact and some believe it is a hoax. I believe it is happening in some regions more than others and storm patterns are changing. I hear locals where I am,talking about the later snow season,and abnormal amounts of snow, while Mr.Branson gave his testimony about what he observed, and I don't doubt him, since I've seen some of the same conditions. Whether these conditions are permanent or cyclical remain to be seen.

     
  • Jerry Bransom posted at 8:56 am on Tue, Feb 26, 2013.

    Jerry Bransom Posts: 363

    BLah, blah, blah.. Any way you slice it, the snow in my beloved mountains is melting. The glaciers above Bear Valley and in the Meadows are all but gone. The Palisade is just a big snowfield now. I remember when it was an awesome ice climb! Ski resorts are relying more and more on snow making. Lakes in the USA are all dried up. In my hometown, a lake dried up and they found a piece of the space shuttle that disintegrated over Texas.

    As usual, the worst people are purposely taking advantage of the situation to make themselves money, fame, etc. How much more of this garbage do I have to endure from this guy and his friends on each side of the issue? We really need a national dialog on what is important truth and what is just a bunch of BS.

     

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