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Joe Guzzardi If Obama’s ratings don't improve, he’ll be out a job

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Joe Guzzardi

Posted: Saturday, July 9, 2011 12:00 am | Updated: 8:58 am, Mon Jul 11, 2011.

According to Frank Newport, the editor in chief of Gallup and the newsletter Polling Matters, President Barack Obama is directly on the fault line between "probable re-election" and "probable one-term president."

During the week of June 26, Obama's ratings fell to their all-time low, 43 percent — dangerous territory for an incumbent.

Seven of 10 modern-day presidents were successful in their re-election bids: Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

Truman managed to win despite his 40 percent job approval rating.

In 2004, Bush beat John Kerry even though his rating was a precariously low 48 percent. Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan and Clinton, all with ratings comfortably above 50 percent, sailed to re-election.

Two of the other three recent presidents, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, had dismal ratings of 37 and 34 percent, respectively. The third, Gerald Ford, attained the presidency by ascension rather than election and served only two years. Each rejected president was done in by the public's perception of how he handled the economy.

Between today and November 2012, the most likely direction for Obama's public image is down. Should he fall into the 30 percent range, his November chances become drastically reduced.

To understand how uncertain Obama's grip on the nation's economy is, consider that for some Americans, the jobs recession may extend into a second decade or longer. According to a IHS Global Insight report commissioned by the United States Conference of Mayors and released the week of June 20, nearly 50 metropolitan regions, or one out of seven, will not return to "full employment" until after 2012.

Those cities include Cleveland and Dayton, Ohio; Detroit; Reno, Nev.; and Atlantic City. The most severely impacted cities like Detroit and Reno, which lost 323,400 and 36,000 jobs respectively, may not regain their pre-recession level of employment until 2021. In total, the cities analyzed in the mayors' report lost a total of 7.3 million jobs from a peak of 118.3 million since the 2008 recession began; large metropolitan regions account for 86 percent of all lost jobs.

Most of those, especially in the automobile manufacturing sector, will never return. Complicating their limited job prospects, auto workers may be past their prime age for employment and may not have transferable skills.

Commenting on the report, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa, who also serves as president of the Conference of Mayors, said: "It is striking, it's sobering and it's a call to action." Villaraigosa suggested that the federal government invest in infrastructure as well as workforce training for the Los Angeles region's unemployed. During the economic downturn, Los Angeles lost 537,100 jobs that are not projected to return until at least 2018.

A jobless American is not likely to support Obama. For certain, there are election variables other than the economy. Some of Obama's negatives are offset by his hardcore Democratic supporters. Much also depends on who Republicans nominate.

If history is our guide, Obama needs to climb back to and sustain at least a 48-50 percent approval rating in the months leading up to November 2012. Otherwise, he'll be out of a job.

Joe Guzzardi retired from the Lodi Unified School District in 2008. Contact him at guzzjoe@yahoo.com.

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53 comments:

  • stan taves posted at 5:18 pm on Tue, Jul 19, 2011.

    Stan Taves Posts: 315

    ...Darrell. you are a friend and I thank you for that. As for K... she indeed is a trip. Trolls? there can not be a blogger that represents the troll more than myself. The fact is that I will attack the stupid and the weak every time they get the notion to pick their heads from the place down beneath. I am a monster -- should I feel bad about that?

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 10:20 am on Tue, Jul 19, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405


    Stan... you can see from this bloggers posts that you risk attracting trolls when you come on line. This is why it is simply better to say... No comment" rather than encourage bad behavior..

    According to wikipedia...Troll = a troll is someone ( or some creature) who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers...

    If respond to all its negativity, it just reinforces her odd behavior.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 10:15 am on Tue, Jul 19, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    posted at 5:06 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011...Personally, after noting Darrell's lack of character, humor and integrity, I would gringe if he were to be a fan of anything I had to say. Enjoy!

    “No comment “

    posted at 5:10 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011...Darrell believes he is forever the victim of others here...

    “No Comment “

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 5:14 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Darrell wrote, "Very well said and accurate Stan."

    Of course!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( smile ) I am shocked (smile)

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 5:10 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Darrell believes he is forever the victim of others here.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 5:06 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Stan: You're welcome to enjoy Darrell as your personal fan club. Personally, after noting Darrell's lack of character, humor and integrity, I would gringe if he were to be a fan of anything I had to say. Enjoy!

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 5:02 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Stan Taves said, "He will tie his people to the tracks if means that his darling will live. Why? because if his demon seed can set root and start to envelop our entire being..."

    No, Stan, personally I did not think your comment was brilliant, refreshing, thoughtful or constructive in any way. Though I did laugh.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 4:41 pm on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Stan wrote, "...you would criticize Darrell for re-iterating one of my many brilliant comments."

    LOL!

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 10:00 am on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Stan stated...( to K Lee)You my friend would be the aggressor in that you would criticize Darrell for re-iterating one of my many brilliant comments...

    Stan... as normal, you get it. It's why I earlier stated in reference to this blogger... queen pot... meet queen kettle. This blogger "is" as she accuses others of being. I think this blogger looks in the mirror when typing.

     
  • stan taves posted at 9:40 am on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Stan Taves Posts: 315

    K... aggressive? hardly. You my friend would be the aggressor in that you would criticize Darrell for re-iterating one of my many brilliant comments. Now... if you find my comments less than " refreshing, thoughtful, and constructive " ( brilliant ) then you need to direct you criticism at the source -- that would be me, K.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 9:36 am on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Stan... having an exchange with certain bloggers is superfluous ...I have found it better to simply state " no comment" rather than waste time responding to someone so superficial. I then have more time to respond to people who actually intend to communicate with good intentions like yourself.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 4:07 am on Mon, Jul 18, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Stan: We have not yet had an exchange on these boards. Why are you getting aggressive? What's your beef?

     
  • stan taves posted at 8:21 pm on Sun, Jul 17, 2011.

    Stan Taves Posts: 315

    K... aren't just the little smarty pants? You want a little action then come at me.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 7:24 pm on Sun, Jul 17, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    ..."He will tie his people to the tracks if means that his darling will live. Why? because if his demon seed can set root and start to envelop our entire being then Mr. Obama will know that his evil deed has been done."

    So this is what Darrell Baumbach calls a refreshing, thoughtful and constructive comment? LOL!

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 7:21 pm on Sun, Jul 17, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    How sweet.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 1:05 pm on Sun, Jul 17, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    stan taves posted at 1:32 pm ...Thanks for your appreciation, Darrell...

    Stan... you are welcome. It is a pleasure to read thoughtful comments you post that has appropriate constructive intent. In a sea of drivel and obvious misinformation that some some bloggers post, yours is refreshing.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 12:29 am on Sun, Jul 17, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Cryptic

     
  • stan taves posted at 1:32 pm on Thu, Jul 14, 2011.

    Stan Taves Posts: 315

    Thanks for your appreciation, Darrell. You know that you are a good one -- we do what we do, and we know how we're judged. God bless

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 1:32 pm on Thu, Jul 14, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Patrick: Maybe a vote for an off-brand ketchup bottle would be something to look into.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 11:32 am on Thu, Jul 14, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    stan taves posted at 11:20...He will tie his people to the tracks if means that his darling will live. Why? because if his demon seed can set root and start to envelop our entire being then Mr. Obama will know that his evil deed has been done...

    Very well said and accurate Stan...

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 11:29 am on Thu, Jul 14, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Oh my Pat... got to be careful now days... Obviously, a certain blogger is encouraging you to buy this product , especially if it happens to be Heinz. I think this blogger would be pleased as to who the profits would be of benefit to. I guess as long as it is Hunts... all is well.

     
  • stan taves posted at 11:20 am on Thu, Jul 14, 2011.

    Stan Taves Posts: 315

    ...Lively indeed. OK, here's my 1/2 penny. Obama will do as much as needed to save his baby -- Obamacare. In other words... He will tie his people to the tracks if means that his darling will live. Why? because if his demon seed can set root and start to envelop our entire being then Mr. Obama will know that his evil deed has been done. I will say this however, he is running out of time, but he is also the best campaigner that I've ever seen. Please people! THIS MAN MUST BE STOPPED!

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 5:48 am on Thu, Jul 14, 2011.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    Thank you for your approval mr lee.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 11:57 pm on Wed, Jul 13, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Patrick: You go ahead and vote for your ketchup bottle, as that is your right.

    God Bless America!

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 2:08 pm on Wed, Jul 13, 2011.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    Yes I will be voting for a ketchup/catsup bottle if that is who is running against BO...at least I know what it is. I've yet to figure out how the American people could have elected such an empty suit (what you will be voting for).

    So...my choice is an empty suit...with idiotic ideas...no business sense...socialistically motivated...hypocritical...egotistical...a user...and finally, a demogogue: a political leader who gains power by appealing to people's emotions, instincts, and prejudices in a way that is considered manipulative and dangerous...and emotive dictator.

    OR...a catsup/ketcheup bottle that can hold valuable stuff, is generally clean on the inside, has a lable with its ingredients, doesn't lie about what its purpose is, is transparent, doesn't scare me, has a generally good history of not making me sick, and at least at picnics is useful. I will vote for the ketchup/catsup bottle.

    Political votes are generally yes...or no...they way the clowns (sorry real clowns) are running the country these days...the ketchup/catsup bottle spin would be a far cry more efficient and probably more accurate.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:54 am on Wed, Jul 13, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Doug stated...Maybe you good ol' boys should vote for the southern fried chicken and watermelon! LOL

    Doug, who are you suggesting is racist? What was said that indicated racism? I really think your comment was over the top.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:51 am on Wed, Jul 13, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    posted at 10:41 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011...
    What's the name of your non-refundable empty soda? Sarah Palin? LOL!

    No comment

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 10:42 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Bob Marconi wrote, "I would vote for a soda can..."

    Good luck.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 10:41 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Darrell wrote, "I would vote for an non-refundable empty soda can over Barack Obama."

    What's the name of your non-refundable empty soda? Sarah Palin? LOL!

     
  • Doug Chaney posted at 9:47 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Doug Chaney Posts: 1232

    Maybe you good ol' boys should vote for the southern fried chicken and watermelon! LOL

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 8:32 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    I would vote for an non-refundable empty soda can over Barack Obama.

     
  • Bob Marconi posted at 6:30 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Bob Marconi Posts: 38

    I would vote for a soda can over Barack Obama.

     
  • Kevin Paglia posted at 4:29 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Kevin Paglia Posts: 2048

    Don't like the current powers that be then find a party you can believe it.

    http://2012.presidential-candidates.org/

    Maybe one of these days enough people will stop voting for one of these two and look at the other parties out there as reasonable alternatives.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 4:24 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    4:12 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011...Darrell: I could say that if the Republicans send a dummy like Palin to run for election that they will be handing the election the the Democrats...

    Yah but...hummmmmm... No comment

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 4:12 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Darrell: I could say that if the Republicans send a dummy like Palin to run for election that they will be handing the election the the Democrats.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 4:07 pm on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Patrick Maple wrote, "Mr Lee: I am not thrilled with BO I would vote for ketchup or catsup bottle first. The battle has just begun."

    Patrick: If you're not thrilled with Obama then it looks like you may indeed be voting for ketchup. LOL!

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 8:11 am on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Eric Barrow posted at 10:41 am on Mon, Jul 11, 2011...What I see is the Republicans willing to send this country into default in order to win the White House and it doesn’t appear to be working.

    Eric... in all due respect, in my humble opinion, that is an illusion that you perceive to be true. This is simply a political game of chicken. Do you honestly think either party will let your fear come true. Your thinking is a result of the illusion. I'm sure the democrats appreciate comments like yours as it gives them political ammunition to get a better deal in this game. The deadline is arbitrary and can be extended by Obama with a flick of his wrist and pen. If I were to play the same game you are, I would say... Obama and the democrats are willing to send this country into default rather than do the right thing and get control over their wasteful spending addiction... can you believe the dems argument about sharing the sacrifice.. that is very comical...50% of all Americans pay no Federal income tax... they are not sharing in the sacrifice at all... the dems would have to increase tax from zero to something on this group if sharing in the sacrifice is a goal. These people who pay no tax are the backbone of the democrats. This is nothing more than a silly game that takes advantage of people's fear for selfish political gains.

    Mr Costner... I could say that if the dems keep a dummy like Obama in position to run for reelection, that they will be handing the election the the Republicans. There is ample evidence that he is the dummy of all dummies if there were such a thing as a dummy president. For example, any person who can spend a trillion dollars on making the economy better, but makes it worse... is a dummy ( if there was one)... I think even George Bush, who many consider a dummy, could have done far better with a trillion dollars than Obama... if George Bush, Bachman or Palin are dummies, then a reasonable person would have to conclude that Obama is as well. ( I think none are dummies)...

    However, personally, I do not think Obama, Bush, Reagan, Clinton, or any president we have had is or was a dummy. I think Obama is a brilliant man who makes very bad decisions. I think all the Republican candidates are intelligent people... even Palin who was smart enough to get elected governor with approval from democrats (80% approval rating), and Bachman who is a tax attorney and senator... to say any of these people are dummies is incredibly naive.

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 7:13 am on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    Mr Lee: I am not thrilled with BO

    I would vote for ketchup or catsup bottle first. The battle has just begun.

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 12:06 am on Tue, Jul 12, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798


    Tim Costner wrote, "If the GOP puts another dummy like Sarah Palin on the ticket, they'll hand the Dems the next election."

    Michele Bachmann may be one that could "hand the Dems the next election".

     
  • Tim Costner posted at 10:51 pm on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    Tim Costner Posts: 10

    If the GOP puts another dummy like Sarah Palin on the ticket, they'll hand the Dems the next election.

     
  • Jackson Scott posted at 4:59 pm on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    Jackson Scott Posts: 386

    I too am not thrilled with any of the GOP candidates, but I dont really know their positions yet. It's still early for that.

    The problem is that NONE of them have any CHARISMA. They are all coookie cutter clones of one another. They look alike, sound alike, etc.

    Let's face it, the American political party system is broken. Both the GOP & Dems are run by the far edge: Hollywood Liberals & Christian Republicans. Why? Because they have the money. Yet they are a small minority of each party.

    And honestly, how many of the Obama voters to you really think will come back to the polls?

     
  • Kim Lee posted at 3:45 pm on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    Kim Lee Posts: 1798

    Eric Barrow wrote, "It seems the GOP is running into a lack of enthusiasm for any of there candidates..."

    I'm not thrilled with any of them.

     
  • Eric Barrow posted at 10:41 am on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    Eric Barrow Posts: 1561

    It seems the GOP is running into a lack of enthusiasm for any of there candidates, the top six candidates combined have only raised 30 million. Romney alone has raised 18 million but that is only half the amount that he had raised at the same time as his last bid for the nomination. At the same time Democrats, probably because of the 2010 shellacking, seem quite enthusiastic estimates are that Obama has already raised 60 million 30 for his campaign and 30 to go to the DNC. Obama still leads all candidates in polling Romney is the closest, down by about 5 points with the rest of the candidates behind by double digits. People can keep saying that Obama lied to us but I got to tell you I see it that way. What I see is the Republicans willing to send this country into default in order to win the White House and it doesn’t appear to be working.

     
  • Brian Dockter posted at 9:05 am on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    Brian Dockter Posts: 2850

    Daniel,

    The average person does not spend enough time following politics in order to
    get a grasp on what's going on. The Democrat Party tends to count on this. Republicans would rather see the average person follow politics much closer. This is why we have much more conservative talk radio. The liberal talk radio show Air America didn't fail because they weren't providing enough information. It was the misinformation that doomed them from the start. Now, this seems to clarify my point why the Democrat Party attracts people who aren't that informed, accurately that is.

     
  • daniel hutchins posted at 1:53 am on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    daniel hutchins Posts: 1339

    Why do candidates spend more money in their campaigns than the total salary for the job position if they win?

    Why do political parties have so much money? If people stopped donating to the republicans and the democrats, these parties would not even notice a change in their income.

    Suggestion: get out of the democrat or republican party!
    Get a Black's Law Dictionary and read.

     
  • daniel hutchins posted at 1:51 am on Mon, Jul 11, 2011.

    daniel hutchins Posts: 1339

    US Citizens have a short memory of about 2 months.
    Obama began breaking his election promises immediately, and that was about 2 months after the elections, and people couldn't remember how they were tricked into voting for him, once again.

    This happens just about every election.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:35 am on Sun, Jul 10, 2011.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    I want to complement Mr Jacobs for accurately describing why we need a new president who can veer off the path that Obama has taken ASAP.

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 4:36 pm on Sat, Jul 9, 2011.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    I am blue in the face as we type!

     
  • Joe Baxter posted at 3:25 pm on Sat, Jul 9, 2011.

    Joe Baxter Posts: 1886

    Robert Jacobs, are you actually advocating that politicians don't lie? What a novel political concept. Don't hold your breath until it happens......

     
  • Joe Baxter posted at 11:19 am on Sat, Jul 9, 2011.

    Joe Baxter Posts: 1886

    If Obama’s ratings don't improve, he’ll be out a job
    They won't and he will be out.

     
  • Patrick W Maple posted at 9:47 am on Sat, Jul 9, 2011.

    Pat Maple Posts: 1805

    Good...

     
  • Brian Dockter posted at 8:28 am on Sat, Jul 9, 2011.

    Brian Dockter Posts: 2850

    Good column Joe. And for the record, Romney has already raised $18 million. Even if he falls short of the $1 billion he needs to match what B.O. is projected to raise it won't matter.

     
  • Brian Dockter posted at 8:24 am on Sat, Jul 9, 2011.

    Brian Dockter Posts: 2850

    If 10 percent of those who voted for B.O. vote Republican this time around we will have a new President.

     

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