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Dave Wellenbrock Why our housing market will not return to ‘normal’

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Posted: Thursday, May 24, 2012 12:00 am | Updated: 6:31 am, Thu May 24, 2012.

A lot of the things we now need to think about and discuss are not terribly exciting, not very colorful. But we need to do it and need to do it in a not simplistic fashion.

The housing market is one. This was the driver of the economy for a couple of decades and now is moribund. Economists and pundits all talk about the housing rebound and when the market will come back. As if the housing market was normal and will go back to what it was. It won't.

Traditionally, housing was not so much an investment as part of one's heritage or as a way to accumulate some capital. Not until after World War II did housing become an investment option for the average guy. And even after WWII, home ownership in the United States hovered pretty close to about 62 percent of the population.

Then there was the push to raise home ownership. There were a lot of forces for this: Builders wanted more folks to buy homes which they had to build; developers had the same motive; and a segment of the liberal community felt that even poorer members of our society ought to be able to own their own homes. The way ownership would be pushed up was on borrowed money, which pleased the bankers.

It worked. Home ownership reached about 70 percent. In a nation of 300 million, that 8 percent represents a lot of homes. But it was unsustainable. It was financially impossible; a lot of the new owners simply could not afford the homes they bought. The result: the housing bust.

The housing market today is moribund and will stay there for some time. First, there are plenty of homes already built. With population growing slowly (and only by immigration), there is only a small increase in natural demand for homes. Second, a lot of the built homes are in foreclosure. These are coming on the market at a fairly steady rate. The banks are bleeding them into the market to avoid knocking home prices further. Third, the nature of the housing that will be built will be dictated by what is needed, which is smaller homes and multi-unit buildings. McMansions were an aberration. Homes will be smaller, as they are cheaper. Fourth, housing should cease to be a Ponzi scheme where developers build homes before need exists and finance the next development through the payments on the current development.

In short, the housing market will be a reduced portion of the economy. Even after the present excess housing is sold, the growth will be lower and closer to population growth. Home ownership will be about 62 percent of the populace: the extra 8 percent is gone forever. (The rate may move up or down a percent or two, but not much more.)

There are a lot of consequences of this reduced housing market. Among them are that governmental bodies that based much of their budget on developer fees will have less to work with. These governmental bodies will have to retrench.

The nature of our development will likely change. Sprawl may well be curbed by this changed market.

And this means both the politicos and citizens alike must think a bit differently. At a personal level, we need to not view our houses as liquid assets, to be bought, sold or traded with big profits. Rather, houses should again be our homes, which are in many ways merely savings devices.

Our politicos need to realize that housing will not drive a recovery and is not an easy source of tax revenue. The politicos must devise sensible policies so a sound economy can reassert itself. This means low inflation and stable policies which do not change with the wind. It should mean a much simpler tax system.

And we need to realize this for several reasons. First, it can help guide one's own thinking about life, including decisions to buy and sell property or to rent. Second, it can help keep one's expectations within reason. Things are going to get better, but it will take a while. A restructuring is going on. Third, it can help who's out there blowing smoke; the politician who says Stockton will be all right as soon as the housing market returns so tax revenues will be up and the city won't have to go bankrupt — that politician is blowing smoke.

The housing market is just one of the restructurings that are going on. But things will get better; indeed, are getting better. We need to persevere, to be a bit more frugal and plan better for bad times. We will get through this one.

Dave Wellenbrock is a Lodi resident and attorney.

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Welcome to the discussion.

58 comments:

  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 6:19 pm on Mon, May 28, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    continued...

    Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:25 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012…
    Dave Wellenbrock stated... And this means both the politicos and citizens alike must think a bit differently. At a personal level, we need to not view our houses as liquid assets, to be bought, sold or traded with big profits. Rather, houses should again be our homes, which are in many ways merely savings devices….Great thought... this applies to all Americans who want to participate in home ownership... Liberals, conservatives and even socialists like some on this thread.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 6:18 pm on Mon, May 28, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Chang stated… No discussions about the letter's topic, just the constant need to get in the last word.Pathetic.

    Darrell Baumbach posted at 12:02 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012…

    I thought Dave Wellenbrock wrote a constructive letter that dealt with our current situation and offered a realistic outlook and position. He stated that the housing market will be a reduced portion of the economy and that we need to realize that housing will not drive a recovery and is not an easy source of tax revenue. He also stated that the housing market is just one of the restructurings that are going on...that we need to persevere, to be a bit more frugal and plan better for bad times. I think he is very perceptive and is offering a solution how to move forward in the future. Great letter!

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 6:10 pm on Mon, May 28, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Ms Bobbin stated…So you are a third party administrator? But I have never heard of a TPA who needed an insurance agent's license in order to adjudicate claims or communicate with the insured regarding claims.

    Ms Bobin...you do not know as much as you think you do... I assure you there are many people who have insurance agreements who never sell anything but are required by various companies to have these agreements when you are responsible for explaining benefits and various insurance contract provisions with the public. In addition, 401K retirement plans allow funds to purchase insurance contracts within the funding vehicle... If you are involved with pensions that are in the bounds ERISA, and the pension is involved with insurance company’s products, you better have license agreements unless you want to end up in jail.
    If you are familiar with broker of record agreements, many times a pension plan is transferred from one service provider to another. If the existing account has insurance contracts in the plan, the new service provider is required to have an agreement prior to the transfer.

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 3:59 pm on Mon, May 28, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    You must be kidding me, Mr. Baumbach! The Heritage Foundation? The biggest contributors to this ultra conservative "think tank" are the Koch Brothers and Richard Mellon Scaife. And you want me to believe they are unbiased?

    As far as your "career," yes, I know what all of items you listed are. I managed insurance licensing for agents for all 50 states for a major insurance company for four years. I worked for a major health insurance company for eleven years, and I have worked in human resources for almost 35 years.

    So you are a third party administrator? But I have never heard of a TPA who needed an insurance agent's license in order to adjudicate claims or communicate with the insured regarding claims.

     
  • Walter Chang posted at 10:22 am on Mon, May 28, 2012.

    Walt Posts: 1117

    Wow, the pointless partisan bickering permeates just about every letter thats posted on the LNS.

    No discussions about the letter's topic, just the constant need to get in the last word.

    Pathetic.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 6:08 am on Mon, May 28, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    of course

     
  • John Lucas posted at 11:03 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    I do not need anything from you. I was just pointing out the obvious

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 9:39 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Lucas stated... It is not that you feel it is a waste of time. It is that you are incapable of engaging in an open and honest debate.

    If that helps you" feel" more secure and comfortable to believe the above... please do believe... glad to help you out... I always enjoy being of assistance to those in need.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 8:50 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Darrell said:

    Mr lucas stated...You are an intellectual coward
    Really? I'll let you the judge...Im not qualified..Evidently, you one making pronouncments and perceive you are qualified to call others names. From my view you are not a coward at all, just a waste of time.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
    The difference is that I back them up with arguments. It is not that you feel it is a waste of time. It is that you are incapable of engaging in an open and honest debate. To do so you would have to put your intellect on the table and the risk of losing is to high for you. It is much easier and safer for you to hide under the bed

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 8:20 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr lucas stated...You are an intellectual coward

    Really? I'll let you the judge...Im not qualified..Evidently, you one making pronouncments and perceive you are qualified to call others names. From my view you are not a coward at all, just a waste of time.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 7:19 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Darrel, thanks for making my point that you are into pronouncements from high and cannot articulate a response when reasonable arguments are thrown at you. The reason you are running from the field of debate with your tail between your legs is because you have no answer to any of the arguments I have made which are without a doubt true and are backed up by facts.. You are an intellectual coward

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:28 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr. Lucas stated…Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people. Eleanor Roosevelt

    Interesting… then… I have an idea… My idea is that all liberals should be hospitalized… let’s debate that idea.

    No… that idea is not an idea worth debating. I can conclude that just because someone has an idea does not mean it has merit.

    I think a better saying is that great minds have the ability to recognize ideas with merit and discuss these ideas with other wise thinkers.
    Ill leave the small mind concerns to you Mr. Lucas

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:15 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Ms Bobin stated...Just about every news outlet edits video tape - but MSNBC usually exposes the editing done by FOX News. To make a blanket statement that EVERYONE BUT MSNBC should be trusted is idiotic at best.

    Ms Bobin... if you read my post at 7:09 am on Sat, May 26, 2012,I stated ..." If you had posted something from the Brookings Institute, Heritage Foundation, C-SPAN or some other respected source of reliable information,I would have enthusiastically watched it"
    I think your imagination and animosity is clouding your judgment and reality. I sincerely wish I could help you eliminate your propensity to distort reality, but I am not skilled in fixing problems like yours. Take care Ms Bobin...


     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 2:33 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    of course Mr Lucas...thank you for making my point that debate with you is meaningless.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 2:32 pm on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Have no motivation to brainstorm in this format... Im creating software for that so I can invite qualified brainstormers to participate. LNS is not an appropriate format as you need to elininate the "cheese" participants.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 11:12 am on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    You are talking apples and oranges. The first thing is that the government is not the other. It is us. We elect representatives to do our bidding in the government. They pass laws and appropriate money to pay for those laws. You can have an argument about what the government should spend money on but when the congress through our representatives pass laws it is the height of irresponsible behavior not to make an effort to pay for it and as I have shown it is Conservative Republicans who deliberately like any flagrant, extravagant moocher put it on the credit card for future generations to pay. Like any other moocher, Dick Cheney said"deficits don't matter". Putting Republicans in charge of the purse strings is the worst thing our nation can do if history is any guide. All they will do is pass a tax code that will shove as much money to thee top 1/10 of one percent of the income bracket and let the generations that come worry and pay for it.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 10:42 am on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Lets start with this thesis. A financial conservative pays his bills and does not run up huge debts. Think we can agree on that Darrell or is that not part of being a "financial conservative".

    Sorry Mr Lucas…you are being silly

    A reasonable person would understand that the concern is government spending. The government is using other people’s money to pay the bills. Any organization that is using other people’s money for their operations are more likely wasteful and are not careful to spend that money wisely.
    I can now see why you “Perceive” you are a fiscal conservative but in reality are simply a liberal like you have always described yourself. You got it right the first time.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 10:39 am on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Darrell said:
    I love debate and have used many brainstorm meetings with groups to develop and expand ideas. It is creativity in motion.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    You might try some of that here for there is no evidence of it in the close to 7000 posts you have made here. You should stick to LTE's for in doing that there would be no pretense of wanting to have an open and honest discussion of ideas.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 9:56 am on Sun, May 27, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr. Lucas stated...Oh, I forgot you do not dirty yourself with backing what you say with ideas or arguments.

    Actually Mr. Lucas, saying I do not dirty myself is a false characterization. I think it is a waste of time to explain myself to "you" in particular. There are many people I disagree with that I would debate as they have more comprehension abilities (than you) where it would not be a waste of time. In fact, most people I know offer more than I do in knowledge which makes it very interesting. I never want to be the smartest person in the room and benefit more when I listen to others who have more wisdom than me.
    I love debate and have used many brainstorm meetings with groups to develop and expand ideas. It is creativity in motion.
    However, if someone in the brainstorm meeting thought the moon was made from cheese during a debate about what the moon’s composition was in reality, that person would be a waste as time as well. The moon cheese analogy is perfect to describe your value in discussing anything about the economy and what causes it to do well or badly.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 11:39 pm on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    care to explain why? Oh, I forgot you do not dirty yourself with backing what you say with ideas or arguments. All you know how to do is make pronouncements from on high. The reason the Conservative Republicans piled up so much debt is that they reason just like you do which is not at all.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 11:11 pm on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Lucas... sorry...you are not making sense...

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 11:07 pm on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Ms Bobin...do you know what claims adjudication and section 125 cafeteria plan administraion is? Do you know what HRA , HSA and FSA administraion is? Are you familiar with various pension plans and ERISA requirements?
    Are you familiar with HIPPA privacy laws?

    Are you aware that communicating with clients in regards to their insurance claims requires me to maintain insurance licenses.In servicing clients who maintain mutual funds in their 401k's and want certain insurance products and annuities within also require me to maintain license agreements with various insurance companies who provide retirement plans.

    Yes I have insurance agreements ... no... I am not an insurance salesman.
    Are you that uneducated where you are unaware that many people have insurance agreements who are not insurance salesman. In fact, there are1000's of people in California who provide administration services for insurance products that have insurance agreements...that arenot insurance salesmen..

     
  • John Lucas posted at 10:18 am on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Darrell said:

    Mr Lucas...glad to hear you "perceive" you are a fiscal conservative.
    However based on you past posts supporting just about every government spending program and tax increase, your perception and reality are on different planets.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    As usual Darrell does not get his facts straight. You do not say what program or tax increase as all he knows are talking points.

    Lets start with this thesis. A financial conservative pays his bills and does not run up huge debts. Think we can agree on that Darrell or is that not part of being a "financial conservative".

    Reagan had a deficit ever year he was in office. In 8 years he tripled the national debt. You voted for him. I did not. That is one for me.

    Bush Sr had a deficit every year he was in office.You voted for him. I did not. That is two for me.

    Clinton balanced the budget in his last year in office. I voted for him and you voted against him. That is three for me.

    Bush Jr had a deficit ever year he was in office. In 8 years he doubled the national debt. You voted for him. I did not. That is four for me.
    To repeat myself:
    To call Reagan, the Bushes or the people who vote for them financial conservatives is a crime against the English language for the facts just does not bear out that conclusion.

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 8:58 am on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    Then why do you hold over 60 appointments to health and life companies? Not for fun, because each appointment costs $22 - or do you just like to throw away money?

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 8:51 am on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    And Mr. Baumbach has proof of this editing by MSNBC?

    Just about every news outlet edits video tape - but MSNBC usually exposes the editing done by FOX News.

    To make a blanket statement that EVERYONE BUT MSNBC should be trusted is idiotic at best.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 8:16 am on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    I take it from your post you watched the video. I see you did what you normally do. You made no comment on the ideas he expressed. You just made comments about people as you always do. There is a saying that had you in mind and goes like this.

    Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.
    Eleanor Roosevelt

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:49 am on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Lucas stated... I know his life experience does not match up with an insurance salesman like yourself but...

    As far as Mr. Nick Hanaeur at the TED conference... a thoughtful person would discount what he said. He is a successful self-made man who many can admire. However, if you applied his statement to reality, Bill Gates, Oprah Winfrey, Sam Walton who are/were very rich, do not or did not create significant number of jobs... I think this man was playing to the audience and the gullible like Mr. Lucas.
    In reference to me …I have no experience being an insurance salesman.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:09 am on Sat, May 26, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Lucas...glad to hear you "perceive" you are a fiscal conservative.

    However based on you past posts supporting just about every government spending program and tax increase, your perception and reality are on different planets.

    In addition MSNBC edits videos and distorts reality to satisfy their political left wing agenda. No objective fair minded person would use any information from this unreliable source.
    You often state things that gives one the idea that you are in total agreement with their biased one sided perspective. The last thing I would do is post any link MSNBC selected of edited.
    If you had posted something from the Brookings Institute, Heritage Foundation, C-SPAN or some other respected source of reliable information,I would have enthusiastically watched it.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 3:47 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Darrell said:
    I am shocked... Mr Lucas... a proud liberal who thinks Obama is too conservative by his own admission, posts what he considers "truth" from MSNBC... comical.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    You might learn something if you watch it. the video is posted on MSNBC but is actually from TED. It is a lecture from a billionaire who sold one of his companies to Microsoft for 6.4 Billion dollars. I know his life experience does not match up with an insurance salesman like yourself but you might watch it and tell us what you think. We would love to hear your criticism of it

    http://thelastword.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/17/11749126-are-the-rich-americas-job-creators?lite

     
  • John Lucas posted at 3:33 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Darrell said:

    Mr Lucas in his search would exclude the possibility of conservative policies having a positive contribution since he attributes 100% of all failure to conservative policies.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Depends on what you mean by conservative. I am far more fiscally conservative than you, Pat or Joe Baxter. You voted for people who tacked on close to 8 trillion dollars on the national debt while I voted against them. You voted against the only President who balanced a budget since Eisenhower. I voted for him. You are for Romney who supports the Ryan plan which will burst a hole through the budget that will make Bush look like a financial conservative. To call Reagan, the Bushes or the people who vote for them financial conservatives is a crime against the English language.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:25 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Dave Wellenbrock stated... And this means both the politicos and citizens alike must think a bit differently. At a personal level, we need to not view our houses as liquid assets, to be bought, sold or traded with big profits. Rather, houses should again be our homes, which are in many ways merely savings devices.

    Great thought... this applies to all Americans who want to participate in home ownership... Liberals, conservatives and even socialists like some on this thread.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:19 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    I am shocked... Mr Lucas... a proud liberal who thinks Obama is too conservative by his own admission, posts what he considers "truth" from MSNBC... comical.

    Wasn't that the same station that accused the tea party of racism by showing a man with a gun at their tea party event but editing out the race of the man
    ( African American) who had the gun... Just a bit misleading to show only the gun but not the black man holding it...but of course, that makes no difference to liberals...

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:10 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Ms Bobin...Yawn... again... you mischaracterize what I stated.

    Of course I look for information on the internet … but not to substantiate a preconceived truth.
    For example, if I were to look for causes of the housing collapse, I would not assume anything. I look for all variables that contributed to the problem. Mr Lucas on the other hand has a preconceived idea that all good that happens to our economy is a result of liberal ideas and policies and all bad that happens to our economy is a result of conservative ideas and policies.
    Therefore, when I do my research, liberal and conservative policies are open as well libertarian, communist, socialist and any other thought that adds to the perspective leading to truth.

    Mr Lucas in his search would exclude the possibility of conservative policies having a positive contribution since he attributes 100% of all failure to conservative policies.

     
  • Thomas Heuer posted at 2:54 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    nth degree wise Posts: 1455

    Nice job Joanne
    Yes there was a big push by Bush the younger to have the F Macs to write more loans for housing. It was more of a way to boost his sagging economy then out of any concern for getting people into homes.

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 2:44 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    Will check that out when I get home, Mr. Lucas.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 1:38 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Joanne, I still think the main problem is the eroding of the middle class by 30 years of Reganism. In that video I put up the other day the billionaire who made it said that if the middle class had the same share of the income it had in 1970, the average family would make $42000 more dollars a year. That would buy a lot of houses. I would like to hear your ideas on that for I must be missing something

    PS if anyone did not see the video it is great

    http://thelastword.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/17/11749126-are-the-rich-americas-job-creators?lite

     
  • John Lucas posted at 1:29 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    I agree

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 1:11 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    Personally, I find Mr. Wellenbrock's column to be written in a manner that is unclear and contradictory. Contrary to his opening paragraph, he has attempted to explain the reasons for the housing crisis in a very simplistic manner that ends up giving all the fault to greedy builders and developers and to "a segment of the liberal community felt that even poorer members of our society ought to be able to own their own homes."

    Both of these arguments are faulty, and his use of "liberal community" clearly tells us where he falls on the left-wing/right-wing scale. Much of the deregulation of the mortgage industry took place at the end of the Clinton administration with bipartisan support. His "poor people" includes middle class families who had accumulated too much debt and refinanced with subprime mortgages in order to pay it off. Lenders used creative financing - ARMS, interest only loans, balloon payments, etc. to entice homeowners into a false sense of security.

    Mr. Wellenbrock uses the nebulous phrase, "after WWII." It has been almost 70 years since the end of WWII. To which part of "after" is he making reference?

    RIGHT after WWII the US experienced a boom in the housing industry due to the thousand of GI's returning who took advantage of the economic boom created by the war - those GI's got jobs, started families (baby boom) and the demand for housing rose sharply. Mr. Wellenbrock makes it sound like mortgages were "invented" after WWII by greedy bankers who were in cahoots with the "liberal community."

    Mr. Wellenbrock also states that the "population is growing slowly (and only by immigration)," when in fact immigration has greatly slowed and overall population growth is affected by the large elderly portion of the population (baby boomers) that is dying off.

    I could go on, but there is not enough time to debunk much of what was written in this column.

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 12:23 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    Mr. Baumbach wrote in regard to Mr. Lucas:

    "You then search for evidence that your truth is accurate and apply those variables to substantiate your truth. Regrettably, that results in a false reality as you dismiss evidence that counters the preconceived idea of truth you maintain."

    Mr. Baumbach has well stated his own MO for searching for evidence of his own beliefs that he perceives as facts. He is well known for digging up obscure references that match his perceptions of the truth as well as that of crazy columnists like Wade Heath in an effort to prove both he and they are correct.

     
  • Josh Morgan posted at 12:19 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Josh Morgan Posts: 532

    "Then there was the push to raise home ownership". IMHO the single biggest factor to the housing debacle is when the politicians (Republican & Democrat) believed that every American was entitled to own a home. Anyone with a high school math background can recognize that if your monthly income was $3,000 per month and house payment $2,200 per month that something was going to give. When housing prices were going up 10-15% per year the banks could care less if they ended up taking possession of the home. They'd turn around and sell it and make a profit. The fact of the matter is that not everyone can afford a home and there's nothing the government can do (or should do) to make that happen.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 12:02 pm on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Heuer stated...DB And you have solutions to the loss of the housing industry?
    DB said "There are so many variables that contributed to the problem..." But can't even name one let alone attach one of your many solutions.. This is pure dodge. weave and DBS. You can talk but you can't say a dimes worth. You've got nothing.

    Mr Heuer... I can easily discuss the historical factors that led the the housing collapse. I think it is a waste of time and will leave it to you and Mr Lucas to focus on something irrelevant if that is what you wish to do with your time.

    I thought Dave Wellenbrock wrote a constructive letter that dealt with our current situation and offered a realistic outlook and position. He stated that the housing market will be a reduced portion of the economy and that we need to realize that housing will not drive a recovery and is not an easy source of tax revenue. He also stated that the housing market is just one of the restructurings that are going on...that we need to persevere, to be a bit more frugal and plan better for bad times.

    I think he is very perceptive and is offering a solution how to move forward in the future. Great letter!

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 11:46 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Odd conclusion...

    I simply was making a comment concerning your statement.

    You said you do not care what Obama's experience is... I am saying that experience is vital. I also understand that Bush is an irrelevant topic as he is not running for president and cannot hurt or help our economy. The next president of the United States however will be in a position to influence our economic future.
    Obama has proven his lack of experience that prevents him from being a leader.
    Romney has experience by in the private sector and government. I'm sure Obama is an excellent community organizer in the Alinsky fashion. But he is not fit to be president of even a small corporation... or the United States.

     
  • Thomas Heuer posted at 8:29 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    nth degree wise Posts: 1455

    DB
    And you have solutions to the loss of the housing industry?
    DB said "There are so many variables that contributed to the problem..." But can't even name one let alone attach one of your many solutions.. This is pure dodge. weave and DBS. You can talk but you can't say a dimes worth. You've got nothing.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 8:17 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Lucas...I sincerely wish it were possible to debate you on issues and gain value from it.
    You have a desire to engage and participate in dialogue that you perceive will result in clarification of what is right and wrong, what is factual. I admire that character trait in you. I wish more people had it.

    However, having a desire has nothing to do with results. If I had a desire to turn an apple into an orange, it would remain a dream as that reality can never be achieved. My life's experiences are dramatically different than yours. You remind me very much of my brother. You have a high IQ and are quick in the thinking department. It does not take long for you to assess a situation and draw conclusions that form a basis of your reality. You have a good heart and desire for good things to come to others. You want justice for others and fight to achieve fairness for those who you perceive do not have it. Unfortunately, you also have a shortcoming that effects an accurate reality. It is a result of how you approach a situation. You have a preconceived idea of truth. You then search for evidence that your truth is accurate and apply those variables to substantiate your truth. Regrettably, that results in a false reality as you dismiss evidence that counters the preconceived idea of truth you maintain.

    I on the other hand do not take the same approach. I make an assumption that I do not know the answer. I do not know what truth is. I also take the assumption that truth today evolves and with change as new variables come to light that change what I thought truth was yesterday.

    I think it is impossible to debate someone like you. I never debate my brother on any issue as his process of evaluating truth is exactly like yours. I do debate many people, but never when they process information as you do.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 7:42 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Maybe but I notice that as usual you are just making broad statements devoid of any facts or arguments against the arguments that I made. Have you ever engaged in a real debate or the open and honest discussion of ideas? You always have a thesis but never any facts or arguments to back it up.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:21 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    one track mind... Sorry Mr Lucas... Mr Wellenbrock was very accurate with his assessment of the situation. There are so many variables that contributed to the problem that your narrow focused perception is actually silly. I know you sincerely believe what you stated, but it takes away from the valuable advice this man gave.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 7:17 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Are you trying to say that the economy was in better shape when Bush left office? By the way Bush was a businessman and had a MBA from Harvard. How did that work out?

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:01 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Lucas stated....I really do not care what Romney's or Obama's business experiences are...

    Obviously... how else could Obama have been elected in the first place... He had no experience at all...

    I call this the head in the sand syndrome. Just dismiss experience as if it makes no difference.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 1:30 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    Good letter. I think you miss a big point of why the housing market will remain dormant for the foreseeable future. Since 1980 the middle classes share of the national income has gone down dramatically. Republican financial policies especially tax cuts to the wealthy have resulted in the eroding of what once was the biggest middle class in the world. While there was a time when people in the middle class could buy millions of homes because they had the money we now have men like Romney and McCain who own multiple homes and the rest simply do not have the purchasing power their parents had.
    The difficulty of getting out of this mess is also hampered by the massive debt given to us by Conservative Republican presidents whose financial policies were frankly insane. If we are ever going to get out of this mess we cannot let these people have control of the purse strings again.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 1:06 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    I really do not care what Romney's or Obama's business experiences are. What are their policies is what is important. Romney want to go back to the Bush policies that nearly collapsed the economy in 2008. The definition of insanity is trying to do the same thing over again and expecting different results. Tell me what Romney is going to do that is different than Bush.

     
  • John Lucas posted at 1:00 am on Fri, May 25, 2012.

    John Lucas Posts: 2730

    The facts are not with you Darrell. The economy is slowly improving in spite of Republican resistance.. When Obama took office we were losing 800,000 jobs a month, the auto industry was on life support, the housing market was dead with foreclosures mounting to historic records, credit was frozen, the major banks were collapsing and we had a 10 trillion dollar national debt which close to 80% of it put their by Republican Presidents. This was the result of 8 years of Conservative Republican policies. A good analogy of your argument would be that a man gets shot five times in the belly and a couple of months later you are complaining that the man cannot run a marathon. Now Romney comes along and wants to double down on the same policies that caused the massive disaster in the first place. No thanks.

     
  • Thomas Heuer posted at 10:01 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    nth degree wise Posts: 1455

    I'm with you Joanne.
    Thats what Romney did. Make money for himself. What distortion?
    Private sector jobs and how is this of any relavance? However accoerding to Politifact "By our count, Obama earned paychecks from 11 for-profit businesses, compared to just six nonprofit or government employers. We understand the point that the most well-known part of Obama's work history is in positions outside the private sector..."

    Does this mean Reagans time as Calif gov had no bearing since it was not a private sector job? We can only use his movie career (like Bed time for Bonzo) to credential him for president? Lets see American citizen, at least 35 yrs old.... Nope thats the only qualifications oh and getting the most votes from Americans. Do research before you flap your lips again.

     
  • Thomas Heuer posted at 7:13 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    nth degree wise Posts: 1455

    Politicing again Darrell?
    Obama has improved the economy despite republican obstructionism. We would be in worse shape if he hadn't taken the necessary measures. You know it's not easy cleaning up after the elephants in the parade.

    And you have solutions to the loss of the housing industry? Oh please share but I know you won't because you can talk but you can't say a dimes worth.
    Good luck on the campaigning especially the hope, change and experience thing that worked so well for Bush but it destroyed the country.

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 7:05 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    MsBobin stated....We all know, despite Romney's desperate efforts to pull the wool over our eyes, that the only business experience he has is to make money for himself and his cronies...

    The only desperate effort here is Ms Bobin's.. She states "we" ( instead of I) to pretend her thought is also other people's thought... how desparate she must be to distort Romney's experience ...Obama has never even had a private sector job... Romney has.

     
  • Joanne Bobin posted at 4:43 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    Joanne Bobin Posts: 4488

    We all know, despite Romney's desperate efforts to pull the wool over our eyes, that the only business experience he has is to make money for himself and his cronies.

    Romney is worth a QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLARS for good reason. He pays an effective tax rate of LESS than 15% on income of 43 MILLION DOLLARS over 2 years- ALL from NOT WORKING. He has much of his money held in off-shore accounts and Swiss bank accounts to avoid paying US taxes.

    Romney knows how to squash the middle class worker and turn them into an impotent member of society while filling his pockets with cash.

    If you don't believe me, believe Mr. Baumbach's hero, Newt Gingrich, whose campaign did all the research on this for the Obama campaign.

    Do YOU really trust Mitt Romney to lead this country?

     
  • Darrell Baumbach posted at 3:09 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    Darrell Baumbach Posts: 9405

    Mr Heuer stated...This will continue on into next year and beyond regardless of who is president...

    I disagree with half of this statement. President Obama has proven he is unable to improve our economic position. It was predictable as he had no experience in how to improve our economy.
    However, just because Obama is incompetent does not mean there are no possible solutions as Mr Heuer suggests.

    I think Romney should run on hope, change and business/governemnt experience...
    Having hope can lift spirits. Having experience is invaluable..

     
  • Thomas Heuer posted at 1:59 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    nth degree wise Posts: 1455

    Thank you Mr Wellenbrock for an excellent letter. I agree the economy is down and recovery is and will be exceptionally slow understandably. When you lose a whole economy driving industry like housing the only means of recovery is to replace it. However there is nothing in the near horizon that can replace the lost jobs of contractors, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, cement workers, carpet layers, landscapers, tile workers, etc. This will continue on into next year and beyond regardless of who is president.

     
  • Walter Chang posted at 12:17 pm on Thu, May 24, 2012.

    Walt Posts: 1117

    Excellent letter, Dave.

    The future is here now, so bring on the "new normal". We'll be fine!

     

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