County's unemployment continues upward trend

San Joaquin County's unemployment rate in June grew to 15.5 percent, which is 3.7 percent higher than in May and 65.3 percent higher than last year.

The unemployment rate was part of a monthly report released by the county office the state's Employment Development Department.

The county's unemployment rate is greater than the state's, 11.6 percent, and the nation's, 9.7 percent.

Leading the continued increase is unemployment is the construction industry that saw more than a 18 percent increase.

"I don't know how much more construction has to give," said Jeffrey Michael, the director of the University of the Pacific Business Forecasting Center.

He said any recovery in employment likely won't begin until 2010.

"We're going to see the rate increase in unemployment slow down through the rest of the year," he said. "But a lot of that is going to be due to the shrinking workforce."

Michael said he's not forecasting any "rapid turn-arounds" and couldn't say which industries could see a recovery first.

He said the downturn has been so far-reaching that the recovery will rather be a slow and steady growth.

"It's going to be a multi-year, slow improvement," he said.

The federal stimulus plan should help usher in the recovery and provide for some modest job growth, Michael said.

"By no means will it solve all our trouble but we will see some possible things," he said.

Counties with the highest unemployment rate

Imperial: 27.5 percent
Alpine: 18.6
Yuba: 18.1
Sutter: 18
Merced: 17.6
Colusa: 17.6

Counties with lowest unemployment rate

Marin: 8 percent
Santa Barbara: 8.2
Napa: 8.8
San Mateo: 8.9
San Luis Obispo: 9
Note: not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Economic Development Department

San Joaquin County unemployment
	June 2008	April 2009	May 2009	June 2009*	Percent Change
	June 2008	April 2009	May 2009	June 2009*	Month	Year
Labor Force	302,500	306,500	308,600	310,100	0.5	2.5
Employment	273,500	258,700	262,200	262,200	-0.1	-4.2
Unemployment	29,100	47,800	46,400	48,100	3.7	65.3
Unemployment rate	9.6	15.6	15	15.5
State rate	7	11	11.3	11.6
U.S. rate	5.7	8.6	9.1	9.7
Source: Economic Development Department

Reader Feedback

Lou wrote on Jul 21, 2009 7:46 PM:

" Yep. It's going to go higher still. However, trend line extrapolation is silly, especially when you start talking about 65% per year increases. At that rate, we will all be unemployed in the year 2016.

All trends reverse. Econ 101 "

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liznbaker wrote on Jul 20, 2009 9:45 AM:

" The statement you made regarding the change in the unemployment rate is inaccurate:
You wrote, 'San Joaquin County's unemployment rate in June grew to 15.5 percent, which is 3.7 percent higher than in May and 65.3 percent higher than last year.' The percentages you referenced are related to the number of people unemployed in the County. As illustrated in the chart you published. The June 2009 unemployment rate (15.5%)grew by .5% from May to June, and is above the year-ago estimate of (9.6%) by 5.6%. "

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