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Report: Recession should 'bottom out' this year
Wages will be lower and more people will be unemployed, but the state's economy should "finally hit bottom" this fall and begin a slow recovery, according to a forecast released by University of the Pacific.
Some of the other predictions included in the report prepared by Pacific's Eberhardt School of Business:
• The recession should end in the fourth quarter of 2009 but the job market will remain weak through 2010.
• California will lose more than 1 million jobs.
• Manufacturing will lead the decline by shedding 135,000 jobs.
• The health care industry should gain 13,000 jobs.
• The Stockton metro area, which includes Lodi, will see a 16.5 percent unemployment rate in 2010.

Reader Feedback
edumacation wrote on Jul 3, 2009 7:41 PM:
UOP: "Manufacturing will lead the decline by shedding 135,000 jobs.."
Possibly, but manufacturing is a small sector of our energy and service based economy
UOP:" The health care industry should gain 13,000 jobs..." So what? These are mainly health insurance industry jobs focused on NOT paying legitimate health claims. What about the other one million jobs? This represents FAMILYS, not just numbers. One million more FAMILIES will be on the streets.---UOP read above.
UOP:" The Stockton metro area, which includes Lodi, will see a 16.5 percent unemployment rate in 2010.
That is conservative! UOP did not compute the loss of GOVERNMENT jobs which has been a major underpinning of this local economy.
This is the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. This is NOT "bottoming out". If you mean converting a recession to an economic depression, that could be?
This is a world crisis! Banks in Sweden are now CHARGING a 0.25% FEE on savings accounts. Will that happen here? "
edumacation wrote on Jul 3, 2009 7:30 PM:
No other economists agree with this! Our GDP is decreasing, our national debt is greatly increasing, we have the largest unemployment rate in over 60 years, California is writing I.O.U.'s, and California G.O. bond ratings are in the sewer. Lets continue, commercial leases per sq ft are declining, commercial real estate is crashing, and residential real estate is on the down side of the secionbd big hill of the housing roller coaster. It's a mess that can only be restored with increased employment, higher wages, lower taxes, and lower deficits. How can this be accomplished?
UOP: ".. but the job market will remain weak through 2010. WEAK? We are on the cusp of a major economic depression!
Commercial banks are paying 0.25% onm passbook savings accounts at the same time they are leveraged at 40:1. The only assets they have is in paper or in delapidated unsold, off market housing inventory.
The only people who are profiting are investment banks and their cronies.
The whole F.I.R.E. sector is in a shambles. "
Giovanina wrote on Jul 3, 2009 12:07 PM:
What real problems have they addressed? Government runaway spending? illegal immigration? border security? Energy cap and tax? All I see is costs, taxes, and regulation fees. They will probably come up with ways to put Federal monitors on your toilet to regulate flushing.
The way Obama handles foreign policy has many worried about another major terrorist attack, or one by a rogue nation.
And where is that long form birth certificate, anyways? McCain had to go through a Senate vote for eligibility, where was Obama's SEnate eligibility vote? This country has been politically monopolized. I think Helen Thomas just realized that. "
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