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In the real estate buzzsaw
Will Lodi's housing market help me out of a pinch? I can only hope
Saturday, August 16, 2008 6:12 AM PDT
A month after leaving Lodi and relocating to Pittsburgh, my move has a new focus.
For the last several weeks, everything relating to moving has been, for the most part, under my control: the packing, the cross-country travel and the unpacking.
But now the spotlight changes to something that is frighteningly out of my hands.
Will my Lodi home of more than 20 years sell quickly at its fairly priced level? Or will it linger on the market, as so many other homes in my neighborhood have?
If it remains unsold, then I may be forced into a coin-flip decision of whether to accept the inevitable low-ball offer or put the house up for rent. A third chilling possibility is that I could take the maximum gamble and carry the house until the market improves, as it inevitably will.
Contractors have spent the month since I left inside and outside my house, renovating and upgrading. It goes on the market this month. By my calculations, I have 10 prime weeks left in the selling season, between Aug. 15 and Nov. 1, to find a buyer.
The equity that I have built up during two decades of home ownership protects me from financial devastation.
I bought my house in 1988, so I'm not going to lose money.
But I do regret that I couldn't move fast enough two years ago to cash in on the real estate bubble that I knew, from years spent on Wall Street analyzing inflated markets, was headed for the tank. An unexpected health issue kept me from selling and, in the process, cost me at least $100,000.
Despite the mortgage meltdown, my part of town retains its solidly middle-class ambiance, nurtured by my conscientious neighbors.
Still, I'm caught in the housing crisis buzz saw: As my Lodi house drops in value, although more slowly than in previous months, so too does my Pittsburgh home.
As if the reality of owning two houses in a disastrous market isn't bad enough, the news from every print and television report is a non-stop stream of gloomy predictions.
In July, the Christian Science Monitor wrote that houses in Victorville, Calif. have plunged by 43 percent over the last year.
Other reports, and you don't have to look hard to find them, predict that this is just the tip of the iceberg and that prices may continue to fall for two more years. One particularly ominous expert evaluation earlier this week described it this way: "Housing crisis worse than imagined."
As one who always tries to find the glass-half-full perspective, I searched the Internet until I finally came across a U.S. News & World Report article that, after studying all the data, concluded that housing prices fell further during the 1930s Great Depression.
Needless to say, I found that cold comfort.
But amazingly, even though Stockton is the world's foreclosure capital, pending sales have risen in San Joaquin County for five consecutive months, although at lower median prices. This encouraging tidbit comes from no less an authority than Linda Bush, president of the Lodi Association of Realtors.
To help me sleep at night, I repeat and repeat in my mind the words of my ever-optimistic agent, Joanie Selman-Prince, that I only need one qualified buyer and that Lodi is still one of the state's most desirable locations.
Attention all buyers! Come forward, please. No reasonable offer will be refused.
Joe Guzzardi, a native Californian, recently retired from the Lincoln Technical Academy and reluctantly moved to Pennsylvania to seek an improved quality of life. Reach him at guzzjoe@yahoo.com.
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edumacation wrote on Aug 20, 2008 8:42 PM:
None of the financials INCLUDING many CD's , real estate (residential AND commercial), the NYSE or NASDAQ as well as the commodities markets. I would cash out of money market funds. MM's are on the edge of collapse and they are not insured. "
Gator wrote on Aug 20, 2008 8:25 PM:
That of the ALGORE greens. L E Ds are about to replace standard
household lighting, Battery technology is a wide open field. wind
power is huge. Synthetic fuel is an other. These type of investments
are worth a look. 200mpg carburetors are not!! Now that John Q
public has the Idea this tech is here to stay it will continue to grow
with out any bubble.. The real estate bubble was a given, driven by
greed it had to pop sooner or laterPeople buying homes they couldnt
afford on junk loans, hell you would have been better getting loan
from the Mafia!! Face it big homes 3500~4000 ft, big SUVs and Big
Pickups are history along with 2.00 gas. Ive done well in the market
but I dont trust the clowns running itWe have a mess of our making
on our hands but we are the ones to fix it. Its time to hold all
Government accountable and if they dont comply, Re ~ call the SOB s "
Cogito wrote on Aug 20, 2008 12:06 AM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 19, 2008 7:51 PM:
I like this one--- "Imagine a pool in the back yard". or my rejoinder? Imagine having to pay mortgage payments on this dumpt for another 30 years? "
Gator wrote on Aug 19, 2008 2:39 PM:
Gator wrote on Aug 19, 2008 2:36 PM:
Car over here!! Hes one legged, needs his wife!!! Lets drive over and show
the little woman!! You know the market is full of cars like yours, thats
the best we can do!!! Your credit is a little shaky, but I think we can put you in it with a little work!! With your credit I think 23% is the real deal,
Sign here!! What can I do to have you take it now??? You know this is the only one we have, I have a guy who wants it, but if you want we can go inside and in 20 minutes your on your way!!! "
Edumacation wrote on Aug 19, 2008 1:26 PM:
Comprende? "
Gator wrote on Aug 19, 2008 10:04 AM:
for a friend. I sold High dollar RVs after I retired. So as far as salesman
go I can spot a Shark or a green pea a mile away, like wise for real-estate
salesman. In both venues it will blow your mind what people will try
and get by with, say they want a 400,000 Coach, ok, I run the credit ap.
and lo and behold 2 bankruptcies, I take this back and they still want the coach.Buying a House is pretty much the same. You need creative
Financing, basically you cant afford it., Bad credit, fix it then buy.
ARM forget it, Balloon Payment, never!! Do your research on the realtor,
the title company and watch the appraiser like a hawk and check comps
for yourself .You are your best advocate. Caveat emptor !!! "
edumacation wrote on Aug 18, 2008 11:41 PM:
Now you know why so many people go into real estate! Many are honest, but IMHO many are not, it is a breeding ground for con artists and hucksters. Look what happened with the bubble. "
edumacation wrote on Aug 18, 2008 11:28 PM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 18, 2008 11:15 PM:
The intersections of these four equities will determine the financial value of the transaction at any point in time.
For example, in this area speculative equity is rapidly declining. If somoene is a recent purchaser(since 2004) with 20% down they may have already lost their downpayment -initial equity. If the recent buyer had an Option Arm, an ALt-A loan, or a piggyback loan they are most likley in debt for more then purchase cost. Don't forget to factor in closing costs and Realtor commissions which will subtract another 5-8% from the sum of all equities. Currently the housing, developer, Realtor, apprasial, and banking cheerleaders only care about two of the equities. These are the speculative equity and the inflationary equity. "
Cogito wrote on Aug 18, 2008 9:11 PM:
T&C wrote on Aug 18, 2008 8:18 AM:
Gator wrote on Aug 18, 2008 7:08 AM:
but what is the trump card in all of this?? The buyer, they are the ones
who sign on the dotted line, and know if the can afford the 500,000
dollar house on their income, who understands what ARM and the
wonderful Balloon means. Then you have the house flippers, at one
time it was the real deal, oops there is Greed licking his chops again.
but now its suicideThere is no doubt the market will recover but
gone are the days of the big house, ski boat, SUV and big Pickup
Truck, etc!! Like the Buffalo, they are the ghost of the past along
With 2.00 a gallon gas. In the words of the esteemed Reverend
Wright, Da Chickens has come home to roost!!! "
edumacation wrote on Aug 18, 2008 7:04 AM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 18, 2008 6:59 AM:
I disagree with your three bad guys. If you look at the details, you see more. I would like to add additional evil doers: The NAR, CAR, Appraisers, developers, builders selling houses at three+ times cost, investment banks, commercial banks, GSE's, the Federeal Reserve for not reviewing suspicious transactions, The Treasury Department including the Office of Thrift Supervision,the FDIC, The Federal Appraisal regulatory agencies, all state appraisal regulators (they didn't do their job), the mainstream news media who were afraid to talk about the crimes or loses ad revenue for real estate developments, The US Congress for not accepting its responsibilities, the President of the US for cheerleading the bubble as a way to avoid the previous proto-recession. There is plenty of blame to go around.
The bubble could have NEVER occurred if ANY of these people/entities intervened. "
Gator wrote on Aug 18, 2008 6:39 AM:
going for real.. I made a very, very nice profit. Who sold the house, well
I did, an off hand remark was made, I told the party to come by and check
out the house, which they did, I showed my house like a salesman should
pointing out every thing that had been done for comfort and energy savings.
That afternoon they made my agent an offer, Sold!! That was after 6 open
Houses with no offers!!! The housing mess has 3 to blame, realtor, lender
and the buyerand the ace of spades GREED by all 3.Joe is the one who
gets screwed in this deal by the fallout from the 3 amigos.. "
T&C wrote on Aug 17, 2008 11:27 PM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 17, 2008 9:17 PM:
Neo wrote on Aug 17, 2008 8:18 PM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 17, 2008 7:35 PM:
"After the nation's last major banking disaster, Congress set up a system to catch rogue appraisers. Their game: inflating the value of homes at the direction of equally unscrupulous real estate agents and mortgage brokers, whose commissions are determined by the size of the deals.
But a six-month Associated Press investigation found that the system is crippled by both the bumbling of its policemen and their inability to effectively punish those caught committing fraud.
"The system is completely broken," Marc Weinberg, the former acting director at the federal agency charged with monitoring the appraisal industry, told the AP before he retired earlier this year. "It's amazing that the system ever worked at all."
The AP conducted dozens of interviews and reviewed thousands of state and federal documents, and found:
-- Since 2005, at the height of the housing boom, more than two dozen states and U.S. territories have violated federal rules by failing to investigate and resolve complaints about appraisers within a year. Some complaints sat uninvestigated for as long as four years. As a result, hundreds of appraisers accused of wrongdoing remained in business." "
edumacation wrote on Aug 17, 2008 7:16 PM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 17, 2008 7:06 PM:
You look at similar properties and quickly look at price sq ft. No emotion, no Realtor hype, just facts. And than you SHOW and SELL!---collect your 6% plus anythng else you can extract from others. "
commonsense1 wrote on Aug 17, 2008 4:23 PM:
Gator wrote on Aug 17, 2008 12:14 PM:
Prosperity is what is doing us in.
James Reston "
edumacation wrote on Aug 17, 2008 11:16 AM:
Gator wrote on Aug 17, 2008 7:33 AM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 16, 2008 8:42 PM:
Edumacation wrote on Aug 16, 2008 6:27 PM:
Detroit News August 13, 2008 article by Ron French.
Zillowblog August 14, 2008 article by Diane Tuman---with before and after photos.
Remember FOR YOU TO KNOW. Realtors ALWAYS have first dibs on EVERY HOUSE before its "listed". The MLS is filled with overpriced houses (not wanted by Realtors). If it were a good deal, REALTORS would grab it up. Yes insider trading in Realty is legal in California. The MOST IMPORTANT factors for a prospective buyer are: 1) Do you HAVE EQUITY? 2) How bad/how fast do you need the money. Never let a broker now the REAL REASON for selling. They aren't your friend. ITS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY to them. Good Luck to you. If you rent it out, one month of no rents can eliminate any "profits". Two months, you will be "minus" unless you OWN the house. Three months with no rent and "its just a hobby". "
Edumacation wrote on Aug 16, 2008 6:18 PM:
Edumacation wrote on Aug 16, 2008 6:10 PM:
You will have to make your own decision. I have been very close in my guestimates about hosuing and the stock market problems. I predict that Lodi area hosues will stay low for a minimum of 2-3 years. I see no rapid recovery for the foreseable future. Recently a study was conducted that demonstrated that nationwide less than 30% of foreclosed hosues are listed on the MLS. Their are several reasons for this. The main reason is that placing these houses on the MLS will have cause a great decrease in house prices. Its all about supply and demand. "
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