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High birth rate to boost San Joaquin County population
The birth rate is considerably higher in San Joaquin County than it is in the rest of California and the nation as a whole, according to a population study by the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.
San Joaquin County, averaged 78.8 live births per 1,000 women between 15 and 44 years of age. That's almost 10 percent more than the state average and 12 percent greater than the national average, according to the report.
The increasing birth rate is expected to lead San Joaquin County past the one million population level by 2030, according to the university's forecast.
The county's population will grow by about 6,000 people annually, an average of 1.9 percent per year — twice as fast as California and the United States. If the county's birth rate reflected the national average, San Joaquin County would grow by only 4,000 per year.
The county's Hispanic and Asian population rate will increase, while Caucasians will represent a smaller percentage of the population as years go by, according to the report. The higher population rates are primarily due to the higher birth rate among Hispanic and Asian mothers.
The Hispanic population is expected to increase more than any other group. Hispanics represented about one-third of the county's population in 2005, but it is predicted to increase to 38 percent in 2015 and to 44 percent by 2030.
Jeff Michael
And the county can expect 3,000 to 4,000 people per year to migrate from other countries, a number that's pretty consistent during the past 20 years, said Jeff Michael, director of Pacific's Business Forecasting Center.
The upward population changes will require the need for improved roads, housing and schools, Michael said.
"It's part of the reason we do population forecasts like this," he said.
| Population projection for San Joaquin County | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2030 |
657,000 | 711,800 | 800,400 | 1,047,800 |
Source: Business Forecasting Center, University of the Pacific | |||
The Business Forecasting Center doesn't have population forecasts for Lodi or other cities because it's more difficult to make projections for smaller communities, Michael said.
"By this time next year, we may break this down to the community level," Michael added.
Death rates in San Joaquin County are lower than the national average because the county has a younger population, but the death rate is higher than the rest of California because of San Joaquin's lower incomes and health education.
| Population by race (by percentage of total population) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Race | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2030 |
Caucasian | 41.4 | 37.8 | 33.8 | 25.2 |
Hispanic | 33.5 | 35.7 | 38.0 | 43.4 |
Asian | 13.1 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 18.0 |
Black | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 10.2 |
Other | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
Source: Business Forecasting Center, University of the Pacific | ||||
Although projections call for San Joaquin County's population to continue rising, communities like Lodi have the ability to lower the growth trend if they desire to do so, Michael said.
"The community, at a local level, has the ability to change this path, but it is probably not as much in control of it as (policy makers) would like," Michael said. "Things like migration aren't just impacted by decisions that are made locally, but by jurisdictions around you as well."
To see the entire report, visit forecast.pacific.edu and click onto "regional analyst."
Contact reporter Ross Farrow at rossf@lodinews.com.
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Giovanina wrote on Aug 24, 2008 12:14 PM:
Your hatred will destroy you....
Call it a Culture War, but it is also a psychological war. The Socialist groups , like Answer.org, NCLR, LULAC, ISO, etc., have been creating a PC war that makes anyone who supports American culture, language, and laws, a racist. And if you are not white, or a citizen, and you believe this, you are called a traitor to your own people. I guess I am a traitor to my people because I speak my second language, English, as my 1st language, I support American culture, language and laws. And I am not white.
This anti-Americans also protect gangs. "
grumpygranpa wrote on Aug 23, 2008 8:59 PM:
T&C wrote on Aug 23, 2008 5:08 PM:
edumacation wrote on Aug 23, 2008 8:13 AM:
A loss on a "vacancy" is a deductible business loss---even if a person just happens to be "squatting" in the hut. No money changes hands, "El Jefe" is happy and we get anchor babies and cheaply built buildings. But that NEVER happens in Lodi? "
edumacation wrote on Aug 23, 2008 8:04 AM:
T&C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 9:41 PM:
T&C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 9:39 PM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:08 PM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:05 PM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:02 PM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 7:57 PM:
TC wrote on Aug 22, 2008 4:36 PM:
http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/1176975.html "
Whoa Nellie! wrote on Aug 22, 2008 4:32 PM:
Original T&C goes on another GOB rant about illegals working in some of Lodi's biggest and best employers. Do you really think that there is a large number of Illegal's working at Cottage, Certain Teed, Thule, etc?
If I didn't already know that you are a consiracy theorist I'd say you are on some heavy meds for your mental state (or lack there of). "
T&C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 3:51 PM:
T&C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 3:48 PM:
dogs4you wrote on Aug 22, 2008 2:17 PM:
dogs4you wrote on Aug 22, 2008 2:11 PM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 1:07 PM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 1:03 PM:
jramagic wrote on Aug 22, 2008 10:44 AM:
Whoa Nellie! wrote on Aug 22, 2008 10:18 AM:
This is simply widening both the education & economic gap here in Cali.
And if you plan on staying, y'all better learn Spanish. "
Whoa Nellie! wrote on Aug 22, 2008 10:15 AM:
The Latinos getting the jobs you speak of are usually 2nd or 3rd generation Californians, most who immigrated here LEGALLY.
I'm disgusted with the illegal alien situation as much as everyone else, but don't throw a blanket over all of the Hispanics. You are being, once again, ignorant to the real situation. "
T&C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 10:03 AM:
journey wrote on Aug 22, 2008 9:19 AM:
Scrutiny wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:33 AM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:30 AM:
T & C wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:27 AM:
jramagic wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:25 AM:
out to say, 2050 or so and California
will look like it did in the 1840s before the gold rush and statehood....only with a LOT more people. History is indeed a circular, spiral thing, eh? "
jramagic wrote on Aug 22, 2008 8:10 AM:
a corresponding drop the demographics related to education and income levels. We'll see what that does for the quality of life here in this already-crowded, already-thirsty, already-strapped, and
already crime-ridden state. Time will tell. "
Cogito wrote on Aug 22, 2008 7:28 AM:
Cogito wrote on Aug 22, 2008 7:19 AM:
Giovanina wrote on Aug 22, 2008 6:38 AM:
boonablis wrote on Aug 22, 2008 6:11 AM:
steve wrote on Aug 22, 2008 4:09 AM:
Comments on this story are now closed.