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Study: Supercenter could have a huge drain on Lodi retail
The opening of a Wal-Mart Supercenter in Lodi could initially drain sales by almost half at all of the city's other general retail shops.
That's the conclusion of a new study released this week examining Wal-Mart's economic effects.
Should the retail giant gain approval for its 226,000 square-foot Supercenter — proposed at Kettleman and Lower Sacramento Road — it would also likely drive Cherokee Lane's Big Kmart out of business, the study found.
A San Joaquin County Superior Court Judge in 2005 required the additional analysis, overturning the city's initial approval of the project.
Emeryville-based Bay Area Economic, a private consulting group, conducted the analysis.
"It's a big deal," said Randy Hatch, the city's chief planner, of the report's findings. "The BAE documents adequately that there will be economic effects — people will lose their jobs."
He noted that, in time, those jobs would be replaced and the city would see a net gain.
The study is a supplement for Wal-Mart's previous environmental impact report. It did not suggest the city take any measures to address the possible slide in sales at other stores.
A public hearing on the supplemental report is set for 7 p.m. Nov. 14 at Carnegie Forum in Lodi.
The report is available online at http://www.lodi.gov.
That's because the effects won't lead to urban decay, the California Environmental Quality Act standard by which the study evaluated the project.
Stores may close, but they would likely be replaced with non-retail operations, the study found.
Still, city leaders can require Wal-Mart to pay a fee for the initial retail losses it causes, Hatch said.
Officials have been particularly concerned about big-box stores drawing business from the revitalized Downtown core.
Hatch noted he will recommend city leaders impose a per-square-foot fee to offset Downtown losses.
Developers of the Reynolds Ranch project — a commercial and housing development in south Lodi — were charged the same fee.
Hatch expects such a fee could net $1 million from the Supercenter.
City planning commissioners will take comments from the public at that meeting. They'll make a recommendation to the City Council on the Supercenter project by late January.
A public hearing on the supplemental report is set for 7 p.m. Nov. 14 at Carnegie Forum in Lodi.
A final decision by the council would follow. likely in February or March.
Contact reporter Chris Nichols at chrisn@lodinews.com.

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