How will we look in 125 years?

Improved information technology has made the future of newspapers cloudy. But I'm sure of this: In another 125 years, there will be no business in Lodi printing news on paper.

That's not to say there won't be a newspaper. If people here in 2131 still care about what goes on in their community, there will be a business that will bring them news in some electronic form.

I don't believe there is a publisher, editor or web master who can clearly describe what a business providing local news will be like in 125 years. But what I do see are two groups, two social-economic forces, reshaping news: readers and advertisers.

Readership of the Lodi News-Sentinel reached its height in 1992 or '93. (Paid circulation hovered above 17,800, and since each copy is read by an average of two people, the daily readership was above 35,600.) Since then, readers all over America have been slowly turning away from news on paper. They are also watching less news on TV, but more are browsing the Internet and listening to opinion on talk radio. Alarmingly, a growing number of Americans aren't interested in news at all — they are unconnected with public affairs and the social life of their communities. As commutes get longer and family commitments increase, fewer people vote, fewer attend PTA, Rotary and church.

Nevertheless, the table on this page shows that readership of a combination of the Lodi News-Sentinel and Lodinews.com is increasing. In May, more than a quarter of a million visitors viewed 1.5 million pages on our Web site — an astonishing record and a sign that the days of newspaper market dominance are numbered.

Meanwhile, advertisers — the fickle, faddish life blood of news — are doing what they've always done: looking for an audience. In the '30s and '50s, as radio, then TV engrossed America, car and appliance manufacturers, cigarette and soap makers, grocers and retailers reduced their newspaper advertising and spread out into other media. Later, big retailers began competing with small family owned shops. One advantage they have is printing glossy supplements, which they deliver in the paper and/or in the mail. Now people are finding jobs, homes and cars online.

Newspapers are creating Web sites to compete with Monster and Google. We are scrambling to convince our advertisers to stay focused on our readers while you go out and become listeners and viewers and browsers. (Oh, heavens. Are news people going to end up referring to you as news consumers? I'm rooting for you to be readers, but you just never know.)

It's a cliché to say this change is driven by technology. But technology affects people just as people choose to use or reject new technology.

Electronic delivery of news is a certainty because of its inherent advantages. Why should we keep chopping down trees and burning up petroleum to bring you a product that you throw away in a day? Besides, carriers are careless once in while and the darn thing lands in the sprinklers.

The reason most people don't read online is that the electronic geniuses haven't given you the right tool. It just isn't convenient to take a personal computer out to the patio lounger. Even notebook computers are too clumsy to cart from the office to the car, from the plane to the park.

But what if the screens on those "personal digital assistants" were bigger and bright enough to read outside? And what about that thing called "e-paper," a flexible plastic sheet that stores a visible image in much the same way a memory chip stores digits? Some day you'll have such a device for viewing newspapers, books and magazines as well as listening to music and watching videos.

Savings and convenience aren't all there is to the future. The real change that electronic information will bring is "interactivity" — the ability for the news reader to become a publisher. We've always had letters to the editor, but when your opinion or home video flows as easily out to others as our news, society will be transformed.

It's not just that newspaper news rooms will be run more like TV, turning out stories when they happen. It's not just that "talk radio" will become very, very local. Those who care about news will be able to be their own reporters; they will influence our news decisions and decide more directly what community news will be covered. In addition, it will be possible to include everyone in a news conference; polls and elections could be put together on the fly; reaction to public policy ideas and shifts will be instantaneous.

In 1447, Johannes Gutenberg perfected movable type and printed a Bible. He hoped to spread the word of God. That was only the half of it. Cheap books made universal literacy possible. All our knowledge was preserved and spread more easily than ever before.

When the fog of the electronic information revolution clears in the 21st Century, probably with the passing of the Baby Boom in about 30 years, I think we'll see that the modern engineers will be on their way to transforming the world as radically as did the great Gutenberg himself.

What a story that will be.

Marty Weybret is the publisher of the Lodi News-Sentinel and shares ownership of the company with his father, Fred, and brother, Jim.

First published: Saturday, July 8, 2006

Reader Feedback

Phil Shapiro wrote on Jul 14, 2006 5:21 AM:

" Newspapers are waking up to a new electronic universe. Kudos to the Lodi News-Sentinel for being cognizant of that fact. Here's a short skit I wrote about a newspaper that's quite different than the Lodi News-Sentinel. http://newsthump.blogspot.com "

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Changing Smanging wrote on Jul 11, 2006 7:17 PM:

" I think people being their own reporters is the biggest waste of time. Most Blogs are junk (how many can you read about a 20-somethings sexual exploits) rather than widening opinion technology is narrowing it...go figure? "

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